Hey, let’s talk about something that might surprise you—even with all the noise about tariffs and trade wars, Airbus, the big European airplane maker, is expecting more demand for jets over the next 20 years. That’s right. Despite all the tension between countries, Airbus believes airlines will still be snapping up new planes. Let’s break down what’s going on here in plain language.
A new forecast that’s more optimistic
On Thursday, Airbus shared its updated outlook for the future. They’re saying that from 2025 to 2044 — so, over the next two decades—they expect to see about 43,420 commercial jets delivered worldwide. That’s about 2% higher than what they predicted last year.
Here’s what that includes:
- 42,450 passenger jets—think planes that carry people on your typical flight—up 2% from last year’s forecast.
- 970 freighters—those are the planes that carry goods and packages—up 3% from before.
So even with trade tensions making headlines, Airbus sees a steady rise in the demand for both passenger and cargo planes.
Why more planes?
You might be wondering — why are they expecting this growth when tariffs are making trade trickier? Well, air travel and the airline industry tend to bounce back from shocks. That’s what Antonio Da Costa, the vice president at Airbus, who looks at market trends, pointed out. He said, “There is certainly some turbulence thanks to the recent geopolitical and trade situation… but the early signals are giving us some level of hope.”
In short, people still want to fly. The middle class is growing around the world, more folks have money to travel, and that keeps airlines looking for new planes to meet the demand.
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Tariffs in the background
Now, let’s talk about those Trump tariffs. The U.S. put a 10% tariff on most imports, and that’s still in place. Airbus has assumed these tariffs will stick around for a while. What’s key here is that, in their forecast, they aren’t expecting those tariffs to disappear overnight. But even with them, Airbus believes the impact won’t be enough to stop the steady climb in jet orders.
Airbus’s boss, Guillaume Faury, has spoken up about this, too. He, like a lot of U.S. business leaders, wants a return to tariff-free trading, especially for aerospace. Everyone knows that a full-blown tariff war could really hurt industries on both sides.
More single-aisle and long-haul jets
Looking closer at the types of planes, Airbus expects:
34,250 single-aisle planes (like the A320neo or Boeing 737 MAX). These are your typical workhorses for short and medium routes. About 56% of these would be brand-new capacity, meaning airlines are growing, not just replacing old planes.
8,200 wide-body jets for long-distance flights, up 3% from their last forecast. There’s especially strong demand for these from Gulf airlines that are expanding their reach.
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