An increasing number of airline unions, industry analysts, and government officials raised a dire warning that the approaching Thanksgiving holiday travel period can bring a record-breaking wave of flight delays and cancellations. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) advised that, if the partial government shutdown persists, extreme staffing shortages for air traffic controllers as well as Transportation Security Administration (TSA) staff can trigger a ripple effect of disruptions for travelers. Aviation experts have cautioned that any single weather event or technical glitch would be enough to send the system over the edge during the peak travel of the year.
There is growing unease at airports across the country as essential personnel prepare to work without a paycheck. Leaflets distributed by the National Air Traffic Controllers Association at major airports have publicized the risk that extended furloughs and abstentions will weaken the resilience of the national air travel network. The advance warning has made millions of Americans anxious at a time when they would otherwise be finalizing travel plans.
Government shutdown fallout
Essential federal activities have been operating under a lapse in appropriations since October 1. While air traffic controllers and security officers are “essential” and must continue to report to work, their paychecks have been stopped. During the record-breaking U.S. shutdown of December 2018 to January 2019, the same thing led to heightened call outs by TSA agents and hour-long waits of security lines at major airports such as Atlanta and Miami. As the continuing government shutdown enters its third week, unscheduled absence among FAA staff has risen, and some control towers have been compelled to close partially or shut down completely in rare instances. In mid-October, Hollywood Burbank’s control tower was left unstaffed for a few hours. The reason behind these risks is continuous funding disruptions.
Impact on flight operations
FlightAware and Reuters statistics indicate that shutdown-induced staffing shortages have generated thousands of cumulative flight delays already this month. On Oct. 8 alone, nearly 3,000 flights were delayed nationwide, the third consecutive day of significant disruptions directly attributable to reduced air traffic control capacity. Staffing levels are reported to be off by as much as 50 percent during peak periods in some regions.
Airlines have already begun to adjust schedules and issue waivers on change fees as a precautionary measure. But the absence of guaranteed continuity of staffing raises the likelihood of additional last-minute cancellations. Airlines point out that holiday travel already operates at near peak capacity, with little margin for error in the event controllers fail to show up for work or security lines become clogged.
Traveler preparedness
Responding to the forecasts of mounting delays and cancellations, passengers are advised to remain nimble with Thanksgiving plans. Experts recommend:
- Monitoring flight status closely through airline mobile apps and the FAA’s real-time airport status tool.
- Arriving at airports far ahead of scheduled departure times to accommodate long security screenings.
- Looking into ticket insurance and refundable fare options where possible.
- Booking backup routing with additional connection time for delays.
Experts in the industry note that even robust contingency plans would be stretched if the shutdown extends into late November. The chances that the funding impasse will extend into mid-November are put at roughly 44 percent based on prediction market data, which implies a strong chance that disruptions will coincide with peak holiday travel.
Looking ahead
Congress is coming under greater pressure to resolve the funding standoff in advance of the height of Thanksgiving travel. The airport and aviation union leaders called for a stopgap measure to restore pay for essential personnel, warning that the longer the shutdown lasts, the more vulnerable the system will be. Without swift action, analysts warn that the relative stability in the punctuality of flights could collapse under the added weight of holiday demand.
Meanwhile, Americans booking Thanksgiving travel arrangements risk the chance of crowded terminals and gateside uncertainty. While no one can predict where and when cancellations will strike, the opinion is universal: absent renewed funding and reinforcements for critical aviation staff, airports nationwide are due for a flood of disruptions this holiday.
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