As the 2024 US election draws near, attention largely focuses on the presidential race. However, House of Representatives and Senate control is just as important for shaping the country’s future. Currently, Congress is divided, with the Republicans controlling the House and the Democrats holding a slim majority in the Senate.
Control of the House of Representatives
As of October 2024, the Republicans maintain control of the House with a narrow margin of 220 seats to 212, and three seats remain vacant. This thin margin is one of the smallest in House history, which presents a precarious situation for the GOP. In practical terms, Republicans cannot afford to lose more than five votes in key decisions without jeopardizing their majority. The vacant seats add uncertainty, and the 2024 election could shift the balance in favor of Democrats, making the House a highly competitive battleground.
Senate control
The Senate, on the other hand, is controlled by Democrats, though their majority is far from overwhelming. The party holds 47 seats, with four Independents caucusing with them. However, the Senate filibuster rule requires most legislation to garner 60 votes to pass, which limits the power of the Democratic majority. With 34 seats up for grabs in the 2024 election, this race will be highly competitive. Republicans are only defending 11 seats, while Democrats and Independents must defend 23, many of which are in states that leaned toward Trump in 2020, such as West Virginia and Montana. Notably, Joe Manchin, an Independent, is not seeking re-election in West Virginia, leaving the GOP with a strong chance to flip this seat.
Midterm elections
Midterm elections occur every two years, in between presidential elections. The most recent midterms were held in 2022, where Democrats managed to limit their losses in the House. The next midterms will be in 2026, halfway through the term of the president elected in 2024.
The 2024 congressional elections, however, will be pivotal in determining which party controls both chambers. Historically, midterms tend to favor the party not in the White House, as seen in 2022 when Democrats lost seven seats in the House. This dynamic often reflects voters’ frustrations with the sitting president’s performance, particularly in tough economic times.
The importance of Congressional control
Control of the House and Senate determines much more than legislation. For example, the majority party has notable power over which bills come to a vote, committee chairmanships, and the direction of key investigations. A Republican-controlled Congress, for instance, could create significant obstacles for a Democratic president, just as the current divided government has led to legislative gridlock on issues like federal spending and Ukraine aid.
Furthermore, even slim majorities in either chamber are difficult to manage, as maverick lawmakers can derail key legislation. This has been evident in the current Congress, where leadership battles and internal party divides have caused delays in passing legislation.
