In a surprise twist defying Republican conventional wisdom, Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) introduced legislation to increase the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour, placing him among very few Republican lawmakers to be championing this otherwise liberal initiative. The “Higher Wages for American Workers Act of 2025,” which he cosponsored with Democratic Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont, is a radical departure from conservative economic orthodoxy and makes Hawley an in-party populist voice.
The federal minimum wage has not risen to $7.25 an hour since 2009, and when adjusted for inflation, it is lower than it has been since the 1940s. Hawley’s bill would increase more than double the rate, with the increase taking effect beginning in January of 2026 with annual recurring increases tied to inflation.
Main provisions in the bill
The Higher Wages for American Workers Act includes certain provisions that would completely change federal wage policy. The bill requires the federal minimum wage to be raised to $15 an hour beginning January 1 of the initial calendar year following enactment, in this case, January 2026 if enacted this year. That is a 107% rise above the present federal rate.
Among the peculiar features of Hawley’s plan is its inherent insurance against wage stagnation in the future. From the second year of enactment, the Secretary of Labor would calculate yearly wage adjustments every September 30 based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers. The adjustments would be rounded to the nearest $0.05 increment and become effective each January 1st .
Political context and Hawley’s reasoning
Hawley’s stance puts him squarely at odds with established GOP economic orthodoxy, which has been opposed to federal minimum-wage increases on the grounds that they disproportionately weigh upon employers and need to be handled by state and local authority. His stance brings him into alignment with some of the Senate’s most liberal members, making for an uncomfortable bipartisan partnership with Senator Welch.
“If we’re going to be a party of working people, we’re going to have to act on behalf of working people,” Hawley said in an interview with NBC News, underscoring his populist strategy. He admitted being outvoted in his party, saying Republican senators would surely vote against the legislation.
This pay raise bill is one component of Hawley’s larger “Pro-Worker Framework for the 119th Congress,” which features enhancing union protections and collective bargaining rights. Earlier this year, he collaborated with Senator Bernie Sanders on legislation capping credit card interest rates at 10%, showing he is willing to cooperate across party lines on economic policy.
Economic analysis and criticism
The Employment Policies Institute has denounced Hawley’s proposal, and research director Rebekah Paxton claimed the pay hike would destroy more than 800,000 jobs in the country and over 6,000 jobs in the state of Missouri alone. The group was based on Congressional Budget Office estimates that even radical increases in the minimum wage have a harmful effect on work.
Previous CBO analyses of similar $15 minimum wage proposals have shown mixed effects. While such increases would boost earnings for low-wage workers and lift families out of poverty, they would also result in job losses for some workers and increase the federal deficit by approximately $54 billion over a decade.
Business advocacy groups have consistently fought against minimum wage hikes, claiming that they are a further expense of operating and could lead to store closings. Critics cite California’s own recent experience with higher minimum wages as a model, citing job loss in some sectors as proof of adverse economic effects.
Political prospects and challenges
The bill will encounter huge hurdles in the Republican-led Congress, where it would require 60 votes to overcome a Senate filibuster. Even with bipartisan support, the majority of GOP senators will oppose the legislation on grounds of long-established conservative economic orthodoxy.
President Trump himself is indecisive, although he once recognized the existing minimum wage as “very low” and mourned hikes that would lead to the closure of businesses. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has signalled against federal minimum wage hikes, with states being left to decide individually.
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