Gold climbs yet again, but experts warn a fall could be coming

Gold hits record highs as investors seek safety, but analysts warn prices could drop next year if economic conditions change.

Modified on:
October 17, 2025 9:04 am

Gold prices are soaring to a record high, attracting investors seeking a haven for their wealth. But experts are cautioning that the mania is unlikely to last forever.

Gold hits record levels

Spot gold recently rose 0.4% to $4,224.79 an ounce after hitting an all-time high of $4,225.69. U.S. December gold futures increased 0.9% to $4,239.70 an ounce. The advance comes as investors seek shelter with escalating geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, and expectations that U.S. interest rates will be cut.

Gold performs well when there is volatility in the market and low interest rates, and hence it is a classic safe-haven asset. The metal this year has gained around 61%, supported in part by a weak U.S. dollar, which fell 0.1% and is close to a one-week low. A lower dollar makes gold cheaper for overseas customers, and this increases demand.

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ANZ forecasts record highs

ANZ bank foresees gold continuing to increase, reaching as high as $4,400 per ounce at the current year’s end. The bank also predicts its high of around $4,600 per ounce by June 2026. After that, however, ANZ warns of a possible decline as the U.S. Federal Reserve completes a string of interest rate cuts.

HEIGHTENED fears about the Fed’s independence, political turbulence, trade tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and excessive debt will keep strategic investment demand for gold robust,” ANZ said.

Silver will also keep rising, with ANZ predicting a price of $57.50 an ounce in mid-2026.

Why prices could fall

Though the strong prognosis, gold is not risk-free, however, according to ANZ and other specialists. A hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve, i.e., increased or static interest rates, could minimise the appeal of gold since it does not pay interest. Even stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth could prompt investors to consider other assets like shares, which could provide returns greater than gold.

Investors need to keep in mind that gold reacts to both economic data and global uncertainty. Even though it’s been benefiting from the recent market environment, any large changes—such as quicker-than-expected Fed tightening or easing of geopolitical tensions—can trigger a price drop.

What investors should know

Gold’s latest performance exemplifies its reputation as a safe-haven asset in times of uncertainty. Existing gold investors have enjoyed substantial profits so far this rally. New investors, though, can be cautious and balance risks, considering that experts forecast the second half of 2026 could see prices fall.

Spot prices and futures prices of gold can fluctuate daily; therefore, investors should remain vigilant regarding market trends. The majority of experts recommend investing in gold as part of a well-diversified portfolio to complement other investments to reduce risk.

Today’s prices

  • Spot gold: $4,224.79 per ounce (0.4% higher)
  • All-time record high: $4,225.69 per ounce
  • U.S. December futures: $4,239.70 per ounce (0.9% higher)

Tomorrow’s outlook

ANZ’s estimate paints a rosy short-term scenario but is also a reminder that gold’s path is vulnerable to global events, Federal Reserve policy, and the health of the US economy. Investors wishing to pursue this market must be ready for the upside potential and for possible pullbacks.

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Lawrence Udia
Lawrence Udiahttps://polifinus.com/author/lawrence-u/
I am a journalist specializing in delivering the latest news on politics, IRS updates, retail trends, SNAP payments, and Social Security. My role involves monitoring developments in these areas, analyzing their impact on everyday Americans, and ensuring readers are informed about significant changes that could affect their lives.

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