Even as discussions have grown louder about a possible recession, many Americans reconsider their career paths as they brace for seemingly unavoidable economic uncertainty. No job is completely recession-proof; nevertheless, certain industries, roles, and activities tend to perform better during downturns, especially those tied to necessities.
Jobs closest to essentials are the most secure
Essential needs, ranging from health care to food and basic logistics, are inanimate jobs that require people during all economic conditions and are the ones that Cory Stahle, an economist with the jobs site Indeed, considers the safest from a recession point of view.
Health care is another industry that is, arguably, among the most recession-resistant. Demand for nurses, doctors, surgeons, and therapists is still strong, even past the COVID-19 bump. The essential nature of the work means that it is also much harder to automate and therefore highly secure.
Likewise, employees at grocery stores and shops dealing in essential goods are likely to be in demand. Examples of such jobs are cashiers, shelf stockers, warehouse loaders, and logistics. “You might have to change the type of food you are eating, but you are still going to have basic needs,” says Stahle.
Some white-collar jobs are less stable
The recession, however, will mercilessly remove others. Software developers and marketers, especially in tech, have recently suffered significant downturns. Job stability in these roles greatly depends on which specific industry they are serving. A software engineer working for a hospital is more secure than one at a tech startup.
Stahle suggests looking not just at job title but also at employer and industry when determining security.
Regional differences in job markets
Job trends vary by region as well. According to Indeed data, postings for jobs in the Southern states are nearly 20 percent higher than those in the pre-pandemic period. The West and Northeast, particularly in places highly concentrated with tech, are seeing a slower hiring environment.
The bulk of the new jobs in 2024 came in health care and social assistance, with government and leisure and hospitality closely trailing. In contrast, software development jobs have declined by 33 percent, with even federal jobs losing that haven status under the current administration.
Skill-building is essential to staying employed
For those in less stable industries, Stahle emphasizes a long-term view. “A career is not a one- or two-year affair,” he says. Building skills that are transferable across industries is a hedge against possible layoffs. Basic digital skills, such as navigating spreadsheets or writing professional emails, continue to be in high demand.
No job can ever be completely safe from layoffs, but by continuously upgrading your skills, you will be better positioned to adapt and bounce back should downturns hit.
In uncertain times, remaining focused on essential services and transferable skills is likely the key to stability and success.
