Millions of Americans rely on annual Cost-of-Living Adjustments (COLA) to remain ahead of rising prices. Published normally each October, this year’s 2026 COLA announcement may be put on hold as a partial government shutdown prevents big inflation data releases.
Shutdown threatens October 15 COLA announcement
The 2026 COLA will be released by the Social Security Administration (SSA) on October 15, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) usually releases September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) as stated here, 2026 COLA adjustment update for millions of Social Security retirees – This would be the best-case and worst-case scenario, with an average increase of…. A government shutdown starting on October 1, however, has compelled SSA to furlough nearly all BLS workers. Those employees who were furloughed are responsible for collecting, processing, and publishing CPI data utilized by SSA to determine COLA. If the government closure lasts into mid-October, the SSA won’t have the latest inflation data to calculate seniors’ benefit increase.
How the COLA is calculated
Each year’s COLA is equal to the difference in the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for the third quarter (July to September) compared to the same period last year. Following BLS publication of the September CPI-W, SSA then multiplies the rate by current benefits. Pre-September projections suggest a forecasted COLA of around 2.7% to 2.8%, which is translated into about a monthly average increase of around $50 for the average retiree.
Impact on monthly payments and elder planning
Even though the announcement of COLA is being delayed, the shutdown won’t impact ongoing Social Security payments. The checks continue to go out unchecked because SSA benefits are funded by earmarked payroll tax revenues rather than annual appropriations. But those seniors who count on these increases to budget for necessities including housing, utilities, and healthcare may remain uncertain through the remainder of 2025. Without an announced COLA figure, preparation of the 2026 household budget and projected Medicare Part B premium withholdings becomes problematic.
Lessons from past shutdowns
It’s not the first time a shutdown disrupted the COLA timetable. In 2013, the 16-day shutdown delayed the CPI release and subsequent COLA announcement, delaying budgeting planning for retirees. Department of Labor contingency plans indicate that any protracted funding lapse will suspend BLS data activities, freeze CPI releases, and suspend updates to official economic reports. Shutdowns in previous years have been shorter than two weeks, so it suggests that the delay in COLA may be brief if legislatures refill funds before mid-October.
Waiting for resolution and what seniors can do
Seniors will receive their official COLA when Congress passes a funding bill or continuing resolution to reopen the federal agencies. If the BLS resumes work in a timely manner, CPI data will be released, and SSA can issue the COLA notice soon after. Meanwhile, retirees can watch for credible news reports and SSA releases for the actual notice announcement date.
In order to anticipate any short delay, seniors may check on their current benefit statements, project possible increases from anticipated inflation, and anticipate Medicare Part B premium changes. Uncertainty is never pleasant, but benefits will ultimately be changed to meet 2025’s inflation so that Social Security will still safeguard the purchasing power of older Americans in 2026.
