Retirees are pinned in limbo for answers
Millions of retirees all across the United States may find themselves waiting longer than they expect to hear how much their Social Security benefits will increase in 2026. Why? The partial government shutdown has halted the release of the essential inflation figures used to determine the annual cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA.
Typically, the Social Security Administration (SSA) would announce the new COLA in October based on inflation figures up to the third quarter of the year. But the shutdown has prevented the Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) from releasing September’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), leaving the announcement in limbo.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, is one of the central components of the calculation. It measures inflation based on tracking the average rise in prices for goods and services and is the metric the SSA uses to compute Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) benefits each year. Without it, retirees will have no clue how much their monthly payments will be raised.
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A worrying delay
The government shutdown, which was triggered by a budget impasse between Republicans and Democrats in Congress, has halted much of the government’s work, including the collection of economic data. Even if the legislature and executive reach an agreement quickly, it might take a while for the BLS to tally and release the skipped reports, so retirees may not receive an official COLA adjustment for some weeks.
Last year, more than 72.5 million Social Security and SSI beneficiaries received a 2.5% cost-of-living adjustment, which helped offset rising prices for essentials like groceries, gas, and housing. For 2026, the Senior Citizens League—a major seniors’ advocacy group—had projected a 2.7% increase. That would raise the average monthly benefit from $2,008 to about $2,062, or roughly $54 more per month.
However, with the government shutdown delaying the release of inflation data, that projection may have to be revised. The uncertainty is a cause for concern for millions of older Americans who rely heavily on their monthly benefits to survive.
Inflation and tariffs fuel more concerns
Inflation remains a high concern for retirees. Costs jumped again in August as firms continued to pass on higher costs from President Donald Trump‘s most recent tariffs on overseas purchases. Economists warn that the full inflationary impact of those tariffs has yet to occur, so costs could continue to rise through the fall and winter.
Because COLA increases are tied to inflation, higher prices could ultimately result in a larger increase—one the government can calculate. Yet until then, retirees sit in suspense, wondering whether the delay will be a blessing or a curse.
How long would the delay last?
The CPI report for September was set to be released on October 15. Unless the shutdown stops in the near future, the lag will carry into the latter part of November. Even when a budget agreement is reached, BLS will have time to gather and confirm the missing data before issuing the report.
That’s because retirees who traditionally budget based on their estimated COLA increase will have to wait even longer this year. “The timing couldn’t be worse,” said Senior Citizens League policy analyst Mary Johnson. “Many seniors already are having difficulty with higher costs for everything from food to medication, and they count on these updates to plan their finances.
For now, retirees are being urged by experts to stay patient and not make major financial decisions based on unofficial COLA projections. Once the government resumes operations, the SSA will publish the official 2026 COLA as quickly as possible after receiving the CPI data.
In the meantime, seniors can review their budgets, see where they can reduce spending, and track official notifications from the Social Security Administration. While the delay is irritating, the COLA adjustment will still be retroactive when finalized—so that beneficiaries won’t lose any money, even if the announcement is later than anticipated.
