For millions of Americans depending on Social Security, there is a new concern that goes beyond annual cost-of-living adjustments. If nothing changes soon, a major cut is coming—and it will hit two-income retired couples the hardest.
According to a recent report by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a retired couple with two working incomes could see their Social Security benefits drop by $18,100 annually starting in 2033. And this has nothing to do with inflation or rising costs. This time, the issue is much bigger.
What is causing the possible $18,100 cut in Social Security?
The main problem is that Social Security’s Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) Trust Fund is expected to run out of money by late 2032.
Here is what that means:
- The OASI Trust Fund collects payroll taxes from workers
- That money is used to pay Social Security benefits to retirees
- But by 2033, there will be more retirees than workers paying in
- Once the fund is depleted, Social Security can only pay what it collects from current workers
- This will lead to an automatic 24% cut in benefits
For a couple receiving average benefits, that 24% cut adds up to about $18,100 per year
How many Americans could feel the impact?
If you are planning to retire around 2033—or already retired by then—you are not alone. As of June 2025, nearly 67 million Americans are receiving Social Security benefits.
And it is not just seniors who are concerned. According to a recent American Association of Retired Persons (AARP) survey, 96% of Americans consider Social Security to be important, no matter their age or political views.
This is not a small issue—it affects nearly every American household either directly or indirectly.
How exactly would benefits be reduced?
The $18,100 figure is an average estimate. The actual amount depends on a few things:
- Your age when you retire
- Your work history and income
- Whether you are married and your spouse also worked
- When you start claiming Social Security
So while two-income couples may see that $18,100 drop, single retirees or lower-income households might see smaller—or even larger—cuts based on their earnings.
Even worse, the CRFB warns that the cuts would continue to grow over time if no changes are made. By the year 2099, benefit reductions could grow to over 30%.
What other changes are making this worse?
There is also a new wrinkle. Some recent changes in tax law, like the expanded senior standard deduction under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), are actually reducing the amount of income that gets taxed for Social Security.
This means even less money is coming into the Social Security system.
According to CRFB, if these tax changes become permanent, the benefit cut could get even deeper than 24%.
What can be done to avoid the cuts?
This is not a hopeless situation—but Congress needs to act fast. There are a few ways lawmakers could keep benefits flowing at full levels:
- Raise payroll taxes so more money goes into the trust fund
- Increase the full retirement age to slow the rate of payouts
- Cut benefits for high earners to protect lower-income retirees
- Eliminate the income cap on payroll tax, so wealthy individuals contribute more
- Reduce cost-of-living adjustments (COLA), though that is not the focus here
AARP has warned that the longer Congress waits, the more difficult the fix becomes—and the harsher the cuts will be.
What retirees and future retirees should know
If you are planning to retire in the next 10 years, here are a few things you need to know:
- Keep checking updates from the Social Security Administration
- Talk to a financial advisor to explore backup income options
- Pay attention to new tax changes and how they could affect your future benefits
- Let your voice be heard—many experts believe public pressure will be key in pushing Congress to act
This is not about panic. It is about planning. And it is better to be prepared now than surprised later.
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