If you are living on Social Security, any bump in your monthly check can make a difference. The good news is that experts now expect a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) for 2026 that could raise your monthly payment by up to $54.
The latest estimate suggests that retirees could see a 2.6% to 2.7% increase in benefits. That means:
- If you are a retired worker, your average benefit could go from $2,005 to as much as $2,059
- That is about $48 to $54 more each month
- Spouses, survivors, and disabled workers would also see similar percentage increases
This adjustment may not seem huge, but every dollar helps—especially with the rising cost of groceries, medical bills, and rent.
How Social Security calculates COLA
Each year, the Social Security Administration decides how much to raise benefits by using something called the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
Here is how it works:
- They look at prices from July to September and compare them to the same period the year before
- If prices go up, your Social Security check goes up too
- For example, because the CPI-W rose 2.5% in the third quarter of 2024, benefits went up by that same amount in 2025
The official 2026 COLA will be announced on October 15, after the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the September inflation data.
2026 COLA forecast: what experts are saying
Right now, most experts agree that a raise is coming. But the exact number is still up in the air.
Here is what three trusted sources are forecasting:
- The Senior Citizens League: 2.6% increase
- Social Security Board of Trustees: 2.7% increase
- Congressional Budget Office: 2.4% increase
That means your actual increase will likely fall within that range. Here is what that could look like for average monthly benefits:
| Beneficiary Type | Current Benefit | After 2.4% COLA | After 2.7% COLA |
| Retired worker | $2,005 | $2,053 | $2,059 |
| Spouse of retired worker | $953 | $976 | $979 |
| Survivor | $1,571 | $1,609 | $1,613 |
| Disabled worker | $1,582 | $1,620 | $1,625 |
Why some retirees think COLA is still not enough
Even though any increase is helpful, you might still feel like it is not keeping up with your bills. That is because the CPI-W does not always reflect the things retirees spend the most on.
For example:
- Housing costs rose 3.9% this year
- Medical care went up 2.8%
- But the overall CPI-W only rose 2.4%
So while the official COLA may match the CPI-W, it might not match what you actually spend your money on. This has been a common issue for the past two years. Most retirees feel like their checks are not going as far, even with the COLA increase.
What to expect next
Here is what you should keep in mind:
- The final 2026 COLA will be confirmed October 15
- It will likely fall between 2.4% and 2.7%
- Your monthly benefit could increase by $48 to $54, depending on your situation
- But the actual value of that increase might not cover real-life costs if inflation continues to hit things like rent and healthcare
While it is encouraging that a raise is on the way, it is also a reminder to stay informed about what Social Security benefits really cover—and where they fall short.
