In 2026, many retirees might be in for a surprise—and not the good kind. If you have been depending on the annual Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) to help keep up with rising prices, you might want to brace yourself. Experts say next year’s increase will be smaller than expected. And to make matters worse, there is another factor quietly working against you: tariffs. Here is why your Social Security check may not go as far in 2026, and what you need to know to prepare.
What is the COLA, and why is it going down?
Every year, Social Security payments are adjusted based on inflation. This is called the Cost-of-Living Adjustment, or COLA. It is supposed to help you keep up when prices for everyday things—like food, gas, and medicine—go up.
- In 2025, COLA gave a 3.2% increase.
- In 2026, it is expected to be just 2.6%, according to The Senior Citizens League.
Now, that may not seem like a huge difference. But when you are living on a fixed income, every dollar matters.
Mary Johnson, a policy analyst for The Senior Citizens League, explains it clearly:
“The prices of food, medicine, and utilities have not decreased as rapidly as the overall index. For older adults, this represents a real gap between income and expenses.”
In other words, even though the government says inflation is cooling, your actual costs may not reflect that. And that gap can hurt.
How Trump’s tariffs could raise your living costs
Now here is where it gets more complicated. President Donald Trump has announced a plan to bring back major import tariffs—especially on products coming from China.
- A 10% tariff is being considered on all imports.
- Up to 60% on Chinese goods like electronics, household goods, and medical supplies.
What does this mean for you? Prices on everyday items could go up—again.
Even if you are not buying new TVs or smartphones, the effects could hit your grocery store, your pharmacy, and even the medical equipment you use.
Elaine Carrington, an economist at Columbia University, puts it this way:
“A tariff may seem like a technical or business measure, but when it directly impacts essential products like imported medicines or medical equipment, it immediately and disproportionately affects older adults.”
Who will be hurt the most by the combined hit?
This “double blow” of a low COLA and higher prices due to tariffs could hit some people harder than others. You may feel the pinch most if you are:
- Relying only on Social Security for income
- Living in rural areas where goods have to be shipped in
- Dealing with chronic health conditions that require name-brand drugs or medical supplies
Dr. Alan Murphy from the Geriatric Pharmacists Association gives a stark warning:
“Seventy percent of medications prescribed by older adults contain at least one ingredient from abroad. Increasing their prices through tariffs would be a disaster.”
What are lawmakers and advocacy groups doing?
Groups like AARP and The Senior Citizens League are not staying silent. They are calling on Congress to:
- Exempt essentials for seniors from tariffs
- Set a minimum COLA increase, even if inflation slows
- Offer temporary subsidies to offset rising costs
There is also growing support for changing how the COLA is calculated altogether. Some lawmakers want to base it on a different index—called CPI-E—that better reflects the spending habits of older Americans.
What do everyday seniors think about these changes?
If you are frustrated, you are not alone. In a recent survey by The Senior Citizens League:
- 62% of seniors said they worry their 2026 check will not be enough
- 71% are against tariff policies that raise the price of essentials
Robert Klein, a 73-year-old retiree in Buffalo, New York, shared what many are feeling:
“I voted for Trump because I believed he would help Americans. But if the prices of medicine and food keep rising while my paycheck barely budges, then it’s directly affecting me.”
