COLA depends on inflation data that may not arrive on time
The cost-of-living-adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2026 is supposed to be announced this month. However, the Social Security Administration (SSA) may face a problem: the government shutdown has temporarily halted the release of key inflation data needed to finalize the adjustment.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produces monthly inflation reports, has suspended its operations during the shutdown, according to the Labor Department’s contingency plan. Without September’s data, the SSA cannot calculate the final COLA increase.
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Why September inflation data matters
Every year, the SSA adjusts benefits to keep up with rising prices. The adjustment, known as COLA, is based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). The agency compares average inflation numbers from July, August, and September to the same months the year before.
This year’s final data point, September inflation, is due on October 15. If the shutdown prevents that report from being released on time, the COLA announcement will likely be delayed.
“A delay of the CPI release during October of each year might have an impact on the Cost of Living Adjustment announcement,” the Labor Department noted.
What experts expect for 2026 COLA
The Senior Citizens League, a nonprofit advocacy group for retirees, projects a 2.7% COLA increase for 2026. That is slightly higher than the 2.5% boost in 2025.
If this estimate holds, the average monthly benefit for retirees would rise by about $54, increasing from $2,008 to $2,062.
But the number could shift if inflation in September is higher than expected. Recent reports show annual inflation rising, from 2.3% in April to 2.9% in August, partly due to tariffs introduced by President Trump. If this trend continues, the COLA might be slightly larger than 2.7%.
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Will Social Security checks still arrive?
Even with the shutdown, Social Security checks will continue to be delivered on time. That’s because Social Security is funded through mandatory spending, meaning it is not directly affected by temporary budget lapses.
The SSA confirmed this week:
“Payments to all people who currently receive Social Security benefits and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) will continue with no change in payment dates.”
This ensures that more than 70 million Americans who rely on these benefits won’t face delays in their monthly checks.
Services affected by the shutdown
Local SSA offices remain open, but many services are limited. People can still:
- Apply for benefits
- File an appeal
- Change address or direct deposit details
- Report a death
- Update citizenship status
- Request a new or replacement Social Security card
- Replace a lost or missing Social Security payment
However, some services will not be available in person during the shutdown, such as:
- Replacing Medicare cards
- Issuing proof of income letters
- Updating or correcting earnings records
About 6,200 SSA employees — around 12% of the workforce — have been furloughed. The rest are still working, some without pay, but under federal law they will receive back pay once funding is restored.
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What happens next
Lawmakers have less than two weeks to reach a deal before the scheduled October 15 inflation release date. If they act quickly, the COLA announcement may still arrive on time. But if the shutdown continues, retirees could face uncertainty about their 2026 benefit increase.
Whatever happens, retirees can be reassured about one thing: their payments will not stop. As the old saying goes, often credited to Benjamin Franklin: “Nothing is certain except death and taxes” — and for now, Social Security checks still make the list.
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