A little more cash for retirees—but still not enough to make you feel rich
Good news for Social Security recipients: your benefits might be getting a slightly bigger bump in 2026. The Senior Citizens League just updated its projection for next year’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), now forecasting a 2.7% increase, up from earlier estimates of 2.5% in May and 2.6% in June.
Why the upward nudge? Inflation is proving stubborn, pushing prices higher across the board. Since COLA is designed to help retirees keep pace with rising costs, the hotter the inflation, the fatter the adjustment—though “fatter” is relative here. This isn’t exactly a jackpot windfall.
What is COLA, and why does it matter?
COLA is Social Security’s built-in tool to stop your benefits from losing value over time. If milk, gas, and your morning coffee get more expensive, COLA tries to keep your check from falling behind. For 2025, the adjustment was 2.5%, so 2026’s forecast is just a bit higher.
The Social Security Administration (SSA) won’t announce the official COLA until October 2025, once it has all the inflation data. So, the 2.7% number could change again—up or down.
The bigger problem: Social Security’s financial clock is ticking
All this talk about a small raise distracts from a looming crisis. Social Security just celebrated its 90th anniversary, but it’s not exactly in party mode. The program is on track to become insolvent in less than a decade unless Congress steps in.
According to the SSA’s trustees, the trust funds that support the program are now expected to run out of cash in early 2034, thanks to tax policy changes under President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Other analysts, like the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), think the deadline is even sooner—late 2032.
What happens when the money dries up? Benefits would automatically be cut by 24% under the current law. For a dual-earning couple retiring in 2033, that’s about an $18,100 annual hit—or roughly $1,500 less every month. Ouch.
Politics, promises, and reality checks
President Trump, who signed the sweeping tax-and-spending bill last year, insists Social Security is safe under his watch. “We’re going to make it stronger, bigger, and better,” he said at an event marking Social Security’s anniversary. He also warned that Democrats would “destroy” the program if given the chance.
Meanwhile, Social Security Commissioner Frank Bisignano is focused on day-to-day improvements, like shorter wait times at SSA offices, better call-center service, and a website that actually works when you need it. But fixing the program’s finances? That’s a job for Congress—and so far, no one’s eager to make the tough choices.
So, what should retirees expect?
For now, the 2.7% COLA projection means your Social Security check could be a little bigger in 2026. But that doesn’t necessarily mean your money will go further. If inflation keeps rising, your grocery bill, electric bill, and doctor’s bill will likely eat up the extra cash.
And remember: even with annual COLAs, Social Security isn’t immune to political fights, tax changes, or economic shocks. If lawmakers can’t agree on a long-term fix, future retirees could see deep cuts—something COLA alone can’t solve.
Read this much later:
- What do the changes in the retirement age in 2025 mean for me
- Does Social Security offer special services to disaster victims?
- Will Social Security reduce my spouse’s benefits if I get a government pension based on my own earnings?
- Will my monthly Social Security retirement benefit increase if I have additional earnings?
- What should I do if I receive a call from someone claiming to be a Social Security employee?
- A little-known change in Social Security’s “family” rule could cut benefits for nearly 400,000 retirees by up to $300 a month
A raise now, uncertainty later
It’s nice to know your benefits are projected to climb a bit more than expected. But it’s like getting an umbrella in a hurricane—you’ll still get wet. The real challenge isn’t just keeping up with inflation; it’s making sure Social Security is still around in 10 years to adjust for anything at all.
For now, seniors can look forward to a slightly bigger check in 2026. Just don’t spend it all in one place—especially not on eggs, which seem to have developed luxury pricing lately.
