Hey there, if you’re counting on Social Security to help cover your expenses, you might be wondering how much your check could increase next year. Let’s talk about what the latest inflation numbers mean for your 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) and how much more money you might see in your pocket.
What’s the latest with COLA estimates?
Based on current inflation data from May, your Social Security check could go up by about 2.4% in 2026. That’s according to an early estimate by Mary Johnson, an independent policy analyst who tracks Social Security and Medicare.
Now, this 2.4% number isn’t official yet. The government sets the COLA in October each year using inflation numbers from July through September, so we’re still a few months away from the final word.
Still, it’s a useful early estimate. And if it holds, that 2.4% would be the smallest COLA increase since 2020. By comparison, the increase in January 2025 was 2.5%, which raised the average retiree’s check to about $1,957. A 2.4% bump next year would mean an extra $48 per month, bringing the average benefit to roughly $2,000.
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Why inflation matters so much
Social Security uses a version of the Consumer Price Index called the CPI-W to figure out COLA. This index tracks how prices change for goods and services, especially for working people under 62. But here’s the thing — most retirees aren’t in that group.
Older adults usually spend more on healthcare, for example, around 15% of their budget compared to just 7% for younger people. So, while CPI-W gives a general idea of inflation, it doesn’t always match the real costs retirees face.
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Are prices going up or down?
According to the Labor Department, prices in general rose 2.3% over the last year, which is actually lower than the month before. For the CPI-W, the increase was 2.1%—again, slightly down.
Inflation isn’t spiking higher because prescription drug prices have started to level off. They went up 2.3% over the past year, compared to 3.3% the year before. Some credit goes to the Inflation Reduction Act, which now penalizes drug companies when prices rise faster than inflation.
Could tariffs change things?
Yes — possibly. Some of the tariffs left over from the Trump administration might soon raise consumer prices again. Even though some tariffs on Chinese goods were paused recently, economists think prices could creep up later this year, possibly pushing inflation to 3%.
If that happens, the COLA for 2026 could end up higher than 2.4%. It’s too early to say for sure, but inflation and trade policy play a role.
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Bottom Line: What should you expect?
If nothing changes, you might see about $48 more monthly in your Social Security check in 2026. But keep an eye on what happens with inflation this summer. July through September data will lock in the official COLA, and depending on prices, you could see more (or less) than early estimates suggest.
