If you are wondering whether this year’s delay in the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement is unusual, the answer is yes. The last time this happened was more than a decade ago in October 2013.
Back then, the government shut down on October 1, 2013, for 16 days over funding for the Affordable Care Act. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is used to calculate COLA, was supposed to come out on the 16th of October. Instead, it was pushed back to 30th October. That same day, the Social Security Administration announced the 1.5% COLA increase for 2014.
So, in short:
- The only other delay before 2025 happened in 2013 because of a government shutdown.
- Beneficiaries waited two extra weeks to know the increase.
This shows how rare it is for the COLA announcement to be delayed. Most years, the information comes out without any interruptions.
Why the 2026 COLA announcement was delayed
The 2026 COLA was supposed to be announced on October 15, when the September CPI report is usually released. But because of the government shutdown that started October 1, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was not able to publish its September data on time.
Without the September CPI, the Social Security Administration could not calculate the official adjustment. COLA is based on the average increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from July through September.
BLS later confirmed that it would release the September CPI on October 24 at 8:30 a.m. ET, even though most other reports are on hold until the government reopens. This ensures that the Social Security Administration can still meet its deadlines and keep benefits on track.
What is known about the 2026 Social Security increase
Right now, the best estimate for the 2026 COLA is 2.8%. That figure comes from inflation data available through August. If that number holds, it would mean about a $52 monthly increase in the average Social Security benefit.
To put it in perspective:
- The average monthly benefit in August was $1,864.87.
- A 2.8% COLA would raise it by just over $52 a month.
- This would give the average recipient about $1,200 more over the course of 2026.
Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst, explained that the estimate had ticked up slightly from 2.7% the month before. The August consumer price index rose 2.9%, while the index for urban wage earners increased 2.8%.
This shows that inflation is still playing a role, but it is not as high as the spikes seen in 2022 and 2023.
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Does the delay affect your Social Security checks
The short answer is no. Even though the announcement date shifted, payments are not at risk. BLS made it clear that this was a one-time move:
“No other releases will be rescheduled or produced until the resumption of regular government services,” BLS said in a statement. “This release allows the Social Security Administration to meet statutory deadlines necessary to ensure the accurate and timely payment of benefits.”
That means your benefits will continue as scheduled. The only difference is that you will know the official COLA a little later than usual.
How many people will see the increase
Social Security reaches a huge portion of the U.S. population. In August, more than 74.5 million people received benefits, according to the Social Security Administration. This group includes:
- Retired workers
- Disabled workers
- Survivors of deceased workers
- People receiving Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
For all of these individuals, even a modest increase can make a difference in covering everyday expenses.
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