Let’s have a. seat and talk about something that’s been on the minds of millions of retirees: the 2026 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA). On the face of it, the news is pleasant. Close to 70 million Americans will have their checks boosted by an estimated 2.7% next year, which would bring them about $54 more every month. But, as usual, there is a catch—and it is about rising Medicare costs.
The “Trump bump” explained
You may have heard people calling this the “Trump Bump.” That’s because the projected increase is tied partly to inflationary effects linked to tariffs and trade policies under Donald Trump’s presidency. The extra $54 a month might sound like good news, and in fact, it is one of the higher adjustments we’ve seen in recent years.
But the bad news is this: Medicare Part B premiums will also rise by about 11.5% in 2026 to about $206.20 per month. Since they’re taken out of Social Security benefits, many, many retirees will have much or even all their COLA increase wiped out before it even hits their bank accounts.
When will the final COLA be released?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) always publishes the official COLA announcement in October. In 2026, the day after is October 15, 2025.
Here’s how it works: the government looks at July, August, and September 2025 inflation figures. They look back at the same three months last year. The percentage which the figures rise is the 2026 COLA.
That’s why the figure isn’t fixed yet—it’s figured on September inflation. Until that’s released, the SSA can’t complete the COLA and give notice. Payments with the extra amount will begin in January 2026, the timing of which is based on your birthday.
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How Medicare premiums will absorb the increase
So now let’s talk about Medicare, because that’s where things get tricky.
The standard Medicare Part B premium is projected to go up from about $185 in 2025 to $206.50 in 2026. That’s almost $21.50 extra a month. In the meantime, the deductible each year will go up from $257 to $288.
For retirees who only have Social Security as their main source of income, this premium increase could cancel out most of the COLA. If you’re only getting $54 more per month, but $21.50 is immediately taken out for Medicare, the “raise” suddenly doesn’t look like much.
Who will feel the biggest pinch?
Not every retiree will be hurt as much. Some families will still have a net increase in their monthly income. But some will actually feel they’re losing money.
The people most at risk are:
- Single retirees with low or sub-average benefits.
- Families that rely heavily on Social Security as their main income.
- Beneficiaries with no other source of income, so Medicare premiums are taken right out of their monthly checks.
- Those who are charged extra for Medicare premiums on the basis of higher incomes—that is, pay more even than the normal amount.
- For all these categories, the boost in COLA may not help them at all.
How COLA is calculated each year
It’s important to understand how the COLA is calculated, because most retirees believe that it does not reflect their actual expenses.
Every year, the government uses the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). They track how much prices have risen on goods like food, fuel, and consumer items. When inflation rises, the COLA also rises.
The problem? The CPI-W isn’t based on retirees’ spending. It doesn’t focus as much on medical care and housing—two of the biggest costs for older Americans. So even if you get a COLA increase, it sometimes feels like it won’t go as far.
What to watch for in 2026
So here’s the bottom line. On October 15, 2025, the Social Security Administration will release the official 2026 COLA. It’s probably going to be in the range of 2.7% to 2.8%, which will amount to an additional $648 to $672 for the average retiree.
But when Medicare premiums increase by over 11%, a good chunk of that windfall will be wiped out even before it touches your wallet.
Overall, the “Trump Bump” may look like fabulous news in headlines, but no more than a whisper will be noticed by most retirees when healthcare costs are factored in.
What you can do now
If you are worried about the impact, here are a few things you can start thinking about:
- Plan ahead for 2026, especially for medical expenses.
- Check your Medicare plan options to see if you can trim premiums or out-of-pocket payments.
- Explore other sources of income if you are surviving on Social Security alone.
- Stay up to date in October 2025 when the official statistics are released.
