COLA announcement could be delayed
Millions of Americans who rely on Social Security could be left in the dark this autumn if the Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) announcement, usually released on October 15, is delayed by the ongoing government shutdown. The Social Security Administration (SSA) calculates COLA annually to allow benefits to keep pace with inflation from numbers published by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
The problem this year is that furloughed employees at the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are tainting key inflation information, which the SSA needs to calculate the annual adjustment. Without it, the COLA release would be pushed back, making more than 70 million Americans unsure how much their 2026 Social Security benefits will increase.
Why this matters
The COLA annually affects retirees, disabled beneficiaries, and Social Security-based families. The delay may complicate budgeting to cover essentials like rent, groceries, and healthcare costs. Shannon Benton, executive director of The Senior Citizen’s League (TSCL), emphasised that about 39% of seniors rely entirely on Social Security for their income, so the COLA would be an immense determinant of their finances.
Apart from family budgets, this is a case of how a prolonged government shutdown can cascade its way to impact programmes that millions of Americans depend on. When important federal operations are put on hold, it’s not theoretical numbers — it has practical household planning and economic security consequences.
How the COLA is calculated
SSA used the CPI-W for the third quarter (July-September) of each year from 1975 to determine COLA. It is a computation between the current year’s third-quarter CPI-W and the corresponding third quarter of the prior year. If it rose, the percent rise (rounded off to the nearest tenth) is COLA for the next year.
For example, the projected 2.7% raise would mean a recipient receiving $1,500 per month now in 2025 receiving around $40 more a month starting from January 2026. The raise is intended to have Social Security checks keeping pace with the rising cost of shelter, food, and medicine.
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Impact of the government shutdown
The shutdown, beginning October 1, furloughed employees of the BLS and resulted in delay of key economic releases, including the September inflation figures, job statistics, and other statistical releases. The Commerce and Labor Departments issued public releases that upon the restoration of appropriations, BLS would be reopened and notify the public of the release schedule.
This means that the COLA announcement simply cannot happen until October 15, and beneficiaries will have to wait to be formally notified about their 2026 payment. Retirees and disabled Americans will have to plan in the meantime, remembering that the final increase will probably follow recent estimates.
Who Gets the COLA Increase
The COLA applies to all Social Security programmes handled by the SSA, including:
- Retirement benefits, including spousal benefits
- Survivor benefits
- Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
- Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI)
- The COLA, when it is finalised, will be implemented for monthly benefits starting January 2026.
What beneficiaries should do
Payees will have to stay alert for SSA official notices and monitor their mail or online accounts for notifications. While the COLA is expected to increase according to inflationary expectations, the actual percentage and timing depend on reports of the BLS figures, which cannot be ascertained until the government is reopened.
For Social Security-dependent Americans, patience is the buzzword — but so is prudence regarding potential slowdowns that could surprise their 2026 budgets.
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