If you’re one of the almost 24 million Americans who rely on Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage, there’s good news heading your way. The expanded premium tax credits—which have been helping to make Obamacare plans more affordable since 2021 — will expire at the end of 2025. If Congress doesn’t act to renew them, you’ll likely see your monthly premiums substantially rise in 2026.
And if you live in Florida or Texas, the impact can be even more extreme. Both states have some of the highest ACA enrollments in the country. That means millions of families throughout these states are especially vulnerable to premium hikes if the subsidies are cut off.
How much more will you pay?
Aid experts estimate that premiums could go up by an average of 75% or more nationwide if enhanced subsidies are not continued. They could nearly double in Florida and Texas, which already have relatively expensive insurance. That could mean paying hundreds more per month for basically the same protection—or losing it outright.
Insurers are already preparing for the worst. Insurers in Washington State have submitted a 21.2% rate hike for 2026, expecting the federal aid to sunset. Similar rate filings can be expected nationwide, for example, Florida and Texas, where the ACA marketplaces are large and competitive.
Why is this happening
When the American Rescue Plan was passed by Congress in 2021, it broadened temporary ACA subsidies to keep premiums lower—even for middle-class Americans who previously didn’t receive much help. Those provisions were extended through 2025 in the Inflation Reduction Act.
Now that help is about to vanish.
If nothing changes, the ACA could have a “subsidy cliff” in 2026 — the point where aid sharply declines and coverage becomes much more expensive overnight. Other expenses, like new pharmaceutical tariffs, are also being added by some insurers, further raising premiums
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Who’ll be hit hardest?
People in their 50s and 60s who are not yet eligible for Medicare will likely be among the most heavily affected—especially those earning just above the subsidy level. Low-income individuals who rely on SSI or SSDI, many of whom will be pushed into going without coverage at some point, are at risk as well.
Middle-income families, which benefited the most from expanded subsidies, are also likely to lose the most. And if pending House Republican legislation becomes law—which tightens subsidy eligibility and reduces benefits—even more people could lose coverage. An estimated 4.2 million Americans could become uninsured.
What to watch for
If you are in Florida or Texas and rely on the ACA for coverage, pay attention now. Congress has until 2025 to act. If they don’t renew the increased subsidies, 2026 could usher in the steepest premium hikes in over a decade.
Monitor your insurer’s notices later this year and next. And watch for legislative developments—because this isn’t about policy. It’s about whether or not you and your family can afford to stay insured.
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