I wanted to give you an update on the latest drama in Washington. Donald Trump’s much-hyped “One, Big, Beautiful Bill” is looking less and less likely to make it across the finish line by the Independence Day deadline he set for himself. Despite all the noise and pressure he’s putting on Republicans, the bill’s future in the Senate is uncertain.
On Thursday, Trump gathered Republican leaders, cabinet members, first responders, and even victims’ families at the White House to make a public pitch for the bill. He said the tax cuts and new spending—especially on immigration enforcement—would benefit ordinary Americans. But as of now, it’s not clear whether enough Republican senators are ready to vote “yes.”
House passed it—Barely, but the Senate is a different story
You probably remember that the House already passed the bill last month, but just by a single vote. That slim win means there’s very little wiggle room if the Senate makes changes, which it most likely will. Any revised version would have to go back to the House for another vote, reopening the risk of failure.
In the Senate, Majority Leader John Thune is hoping to hold a vote as early as Friday, but there’s no guarantee that will happen. Several moderate Republicans are still undecided or asking for changes, and the current version of the bill is not final.
Massive costs and big medicaid cuts
Here’s one of the biggest sticking points: the bill is extremely expensive. According to the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, it would add $4.2 trillion to the federal deficit over the next 10 years.
That number is making some Republicans, especially fiscal conservatives in the House, very uneasy. And that’s before you factor in the controversial spending cuts that come with it. The bill includes what would be the largest cuts to Medicaid since it was created in 1965, potentially stripping health coverage from 16 million Americans.
It would also slash funding for food assistance through SNAP, a move Democrats are calling cruel and unnecessary.
Democrats celebrate a key ruling
Senate Democrats scored a win this week when the chamber’s parliamentarian, Elizabeth MacDonough, ruled that a certain Medicaid-related tax provision couldn’t be included in the bill under reconciliation rules. That means Republicans can’t pass that part of the bill with a simple majority, and that could throw off their budget math and increase the overall cost even more.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called the decision a big win for working families and a defeat for what he called Trump’s “big, ugly betrayal.”
Not everyone’s on yet
Even key Republicans are sounding cautious. Senator Thom Tillis from North Carolina said the bill still has “a lot of things we’re working on,” and Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski said it’s “a work in progress.” Neither seems ready to vote for it just yet.
Murkowski also questioned whether rushing to pass it by July 4 is the right move at all.
So, as of now, Trump’s dream of signing his “big, beautiful” tax bill by Independence Day is looking pretty dim. Keep an eye out, though — there’s still time for more twists.
Read this much later: The surprise industry hit by the Middle East conflict: “We’re stuck with warehouses full right now”
Trump will not be happy with the latest approval ratings: voter approval dissipating
Good news for trade: China agrees to a rare earth deal with the US
Goodbye to Teslas: major city council drops Musk’s vehicles from approved list
White House hits back at warnings that Trump tax cuts will slow the economy
