A week without a deal
The federal government has been shut down for a full week after lawmakers failed to pass a spending bill by the Oct. 1 deadline. All non-essential services are suspended, and hundreds of thousands of federal employees — active-duty military personnel included — are now working without a paycheck.
Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy alerted that staffing issues at airports are escalating, with the FAA announcing delays at some of the country’s busiest airports, including Newark, Phoenix, and Denver. Air traffic controllers, who are considered essential personnel, are still working but without receiving paychecks. These workers are already contending with “persistent staffing shortages and outdated equipment,” according to Duffy, so the situation is even more complicated.
Why did the shutdown happen?
This shutdown is the outcome of a political battle over health care expenditure. Lawmakers are in conflict over whether to maintain subsidies for Affordable Care Act (ACA) marketplaces — a program used by more than 24 million Americans who do not get health insurance through their workplaces or public programs.
Democrats in the Senate refused to support a short-term spending bill passed by House Republicans because it did not include the subsidy extension. Democrats also wish to reverse cuts to health programs that were implemented earlier this year as part of a GOP spending and tax bill.
So far, neither side is blinking. As one Capitol Hill staffer told NPR, “Both parties are playing a game of chicken to see who blinks first.”
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What could end the shutdown?
There are a few ways the current standoff could be resolved:
Scenario 1: Democrats blink. Moderate Democrats could unite with Republicans to approve a spending bill, especially if public pressure intensifies.
Scenario 2: Republicans buckle. If the public starts blaming the GOP more directly for the shutdown, Republicans might be pushed to negotiate.
Scenario 3: A short-term bipartisan deal. Both sides could agree on reopening the government temporarily while they continue to fight over health care provisions.
A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of Americans would blame Republicans for the shutdown, 27% would blame Democrats, and 31% would blame both equally. That leaves a significant number of voters still in play — and that could be a game-changer if the stalemate lasts long.
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Who’s Feeling the Impact?
Federal employees are among the hardest hit. An estimated 750,000 are on furlough, and many more are on the job without a paycheck. The first paychecks to be missed are due later this month, and for active-duty military personnel, as soon as October 15.
The WIC program that feeds about seven million low-income mothers and children may run out of money in two weeks. SNAP benefits (food stamps) will continue through October, but may have problems if the shutdown continues.
The National Parks have also been affected, with many parks partially or totally closed. Muir Woods in California is closed, while Yosemite is open with limited services.
The U.S. Postal Service remains open because it does not depend on federal appropriations, but other departments, like the Department of Education, have sent the majority of employees home on furlough. Schools remain open, but federal educational services are postponed.
What Happens Next?
For now, the standoff continues with no resolution in sight. The White House has threatened potential layoffs if the shutdown continues, while congressional leaders of both parties continue to trade blame.
History shows that public pressure tends to be a major element in shutdown conclusions. The latest, in 2018–2019, lasted 35 days — the longest recorded in the U.S. — and only ended after extensive disruptions started affecting travel and essential services.
If this shutdown continues much longer, Americans can start to feel even more pressure — from delayed paychecks to clogged airports — unless lawmakers are finally able to find a middle ground.
