The Vatican said on April 28, 2025, that the conclave to choose Pope Francis’ successor will start on May 7, the beginning of a highly choreographed, tradition-shrouded process. With 135 voting-age cardinal electors-the largest number in Catholic Church history-the next conclave will be unprecedented and volatile, a reflection of changes in the Church’s global demographics and agendas.
Structure and timeline of the conclave
The conclave will begin with a special Mass in St. Peter’s Basilica on the morning of May 7, followed by the first vote that afternoon in the Sistine Chapel. Cardinals will follow a tight schedule: two ballots in mornings and two in afternoons, with four votes per day. If nobody gets a two-thirds majority (77 votes) after three votes, the process is adjourned for a day of prayer and deliberation under the direction of the senior cardinal deacon. Still stalemated after seven votes also cause further stoppages after the senior cardinals of different orders give speeches.
A significant deviation from previous conclaves is the presence of five cardinals under the age of 50, including Cardinal Mykola Bychok at 45, the youngest elector since 1973. This younger group is in contrast to the 80-year voting age requirement for electors instituted by Pope Paul VI in 1971, so that electors would be actively participating in Church government.
The voting process: Secrecy and scrutiny
The election is based on a three-stage voting ritual: pre-scrutiny, scrutiny, and post-scrutiny. Nine cardinals are randomly selected beforehand as scrutineers (votecounters), infirmarii (ballot-takers of the sick electors), and revisers (auditors). One elector writes on a ballot the name of a candidate, concealing his handwriting, and swears at the altar: “I call as my witness Christ the Lord, who is to judge me, that I choose him whom according to God I judge ought to be elected”.
Ballots are double-counted to confirm the number correct against electors present. Discrepancies are resolved by burning unread votes and repeating the process. After 21 inconclusive ballots, rules change to a runoff between the two candidates who have been in the lead, though a two-thirds majority is still needed. Secret deliberations are protected by the sealed Sistine Chapel room and oaths of secrecy.
Smoke signals: A centuries-old tradition
Signs of results are signaled by chimney smoke from the Sistine Chapel-black in the event of indecision, white for election victory. Originally done using burning moist straw (white) or tar (black), today the Vatican makes use of chemical cartridges for visibility. Black smoke is from potassium perchlorate, anthracene, and sulfur, while white smoke uses an innocuous mix to prevent carcinogenic fumes. The ritual of smoke, preserved in spite of improvements in means of communication, is the Church’s combination of tradition and flexibility.
Demographic changes in the college of cardinals
The 2025 conclave highlights tectonic demographic change. Just 14% are Italian-a marked drop from the pre-World War II 50% Italian majority and 25% as recently as 2013. This is a testament to Pope Francis’ desire to elect cardinals from the “peripheries,” such as sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Electors come from 67 nations, including notable representation from Brazil, India, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, adding voices from expanding Catholic populations.
Age dynamics are also at work. The median age of voters is 72, down slightly from previous conclaves, thanks in part to Francis’ appointment of younger bishops. But the rule excluding cardinals 80 or older means influential men such as Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re (91) are denied a say, distributing influence to more recent appointees.
A conclave of firsts
The May 7 conclave is a milestone for the Catholic Church. The large, multi continent electorate raises the chances of a non-European pope-for the first time in recent history from Africa, Asia, or Latin America. Possibles such as Congo’s Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu or the Philippines’ Cardinal Jose Advincula point in this direction. However, a lack of a single frontrunner and the two-thirds majority vote can make deliberations drag on, challenging the cardinals to weigh tradition against issues of today.
While the world waits with bated breath for white smoke, the conclave’s choice will signal not just a new shepherd but the direction of the Church in an increasingly plural society. Where the next pope comes from-a war zone hotbed, a rising Catholic population, or even within the Curia-his becoming will be based on a process as ancient as it is enduring-a ratification of the constant overlap of religiosity and bureaucracy.
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