As the first properly formed storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, Hurricane Erin is still active and posing threats against coastal communities from North Carolina to New England. Although the storm remains some hundreds of miles offshore, its huge wind field and very powerful surf have sounded alarms and prompted evacuations, demonstrating that dangers to both life and property exist on the Eastern Seaboard as also documented here, Will Tropical Storm Erin become a hurricane? Where will Erin make landfall and what damage could it do?
Current location and forecast track
About 11 a.m. EDT on 21 August, Erin was about 260 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving north-northeast at 18 mph with maximum sustained winds of 100 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 105 miles from the eye while tropical-storm-force winds hit areas 320 miles farther, increasing hazards far from the center of the storm.
Forecast models anticipate that Erin will track north-northeastward across the western Atlantic between the U.S. coast and Bermuda through Friday, then move toward the southwest of Atlantic Canada on Saturday, becoming a post-tropical system over the weekend.
Life-threatening surf and rip currents
Of the life-threatening surf and rip currents, the most immediate danger posed by Erin would be within the surf-hang. Beachgoers up and down the coast from Florida to Maine are at a high rip current risk, with swells of 10 to 20 feet reported along the Outer Banks and 8 to 20 feet in parts of the Northeast. The National Hurricane Center warns that even the most experienced swimmer may get caught in offshore currents, which reach hundreds of miles from the storm’s core. State and local authorities have closed beaches along this path, from North Carolina through New Jersey, as waves and currents continue to endanger lives.
Storm surge and coastal flooding
Storm surge warnings still exist in some areas of the North Carolina coast and segments of the Mid-Atlantic coast, where there will be 2 to 4 feet above the average normal tide height, especially during high tide events, such as on Thursday evening along the Outer Banks. Northward along the coast, areas from Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to Long Island, New York, will experience areas inundated with an additional 1 to 3 feet of flooding in low-lying regions. The mandate for evacuation from barrier islands, such as Hatteras and Ocracoke, in North Carolina has caused the relocation of over 2,000 residents by ferry, just as a precaution against rising waters.
Although offshore, Erin’s center already has this kind of tropical storm winds affecting the Outer Banks, with further spreading forecasts into Virginia by Thursday. Gusts over 40 mph can down trees and power lines, causing outages as well as localized damage. Rain bands reaching coastal communities are dropping brief but intense downpours, associated flash flooding likely to occur in susceptible low-lying areas.
Property risks and preparedness
Coastal erosion further propounded with rising sea level has accelerated in susceptible areas such as North Carolina’s Outer Banks. The loss of retreating shoreline by storm surge could remove roadways and structures, rendering impassable highways such as Highway 12 for days. The advice is that homeowners in flood-prone areas should reinforce doors and windows, elevate valuables, and review evacuation routes. Local emergency management officials remind that outside furniture and other loose items that might be turned into flying debris during high winds should be secured.
With the approaching of Hurricane Erin, North Carolina Gov. Josh Stein declared a state of emergency and authorized resources for evacuations and shelters. Mandatory orders for Ocracoke and parts of Hatteras Island reflect the serious threat of surge flooding and hazardous surf. People have been advised to leave barrier islands now, especially low-lying areas immediately. Local authorities should be followed to leave with them as conditions expected with the storm may change rapidly with surge and tide.
Outlook and recommendations
While Erin may almost drift away from direct landfall, her great winds and potential surf conditions will last until Friday. Lifeguards and coastal officials recommend the following:
- Stay out of the water until surf and rip current warnings are lifted.
- Keep an eye on local flood advisories for rising water levels and road closures.
- Heed evacuation orders, keeping ready emergency kits accessible.
With gradual weakening through open waters, Erin should be carrying its most intense impacts upon coastlines used to the effects of Atlantic storms. However, due to the sheer size of the hurricane, communities hundreds of miles away from its eye still remain at risk. Care, preparedness, and strict adherence to official guidance are crucial in ensuring lives are saved and damages minimized across the Eastern Seaboard.
