While Social Security beneficiaries and retirees look forward to another year of economic instability, 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA) forecasts remain on top of the agenda. This week’s roundup captures the newest forecasts, policy news, and analyst commentary to better understand what beneficiaries can anticipate in the coming year.
Latest COLA 2026 projections
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL), a nonpartisan consumer advocacy organization, adjusted its estimate for its 2026 COLA to 2.4%, up from its original estimate of 2.3%. The change comes after releasing in April 2025 for the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) as a 0.3% monthly and 2.1% annual increase. Independent analyst Mary Johnson, an expert in Social Security and Medicare, tracks closely with an estimated 2.1–2.4% range for 2026.
If those projections are accurate, the 2026 COLA would be the lowest boost since 2021 when benefits were increased only 1.3%. To put this in perspective, the 2025 COLA was 2.5% and 2024 saw a 3.2% boost. These numbers are part of a larger trend of diminishing adjustments in the midst of ongoing inflation in housing and healthcare.
Ebb and flow of key factors: CPI-W trends and inflation patterns
The COLA is derived from the CPI-W, a gauge of urban wage-earners’ price change. The formula, (A-B)/B × 100, is used to compare the third-quarter average of CPI-W in the current year (A) and the same third quarter last year (B). As of April 2025, CPI-W was at an average of 314.243, a 1.79% increase from the 2024 third-quarter average. Growth has, however, been lackluster lately compared to post-pandemic growth in 2023.
Most significantly, shelter expenses—more than 30% of the CPI-W—increased 0.3% in April because electricity and natural gas prices rose, pushing energy prices 0.7% higher. Food fell a paltry -0.1%, bringing little solace to households.
Impact on retirees and beneficiaries
A survey by TSCL showed that 94% of recipients believed the 2025 COLA was too low to meet increasing expenses, and 73% were surviving on at least half their income from Social Security. For those who were surviving off benefits alone at 39%, even a small deficit in the COLA would result in worsening finances.
“Seniors are already dipping into savings to pay for inflation,” noted TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. “A 2.4% COLA in 2026 would leave many barely able to meet necessities such as medications and utilities.”
Policy developments and advocacy
Advocacy groups are mounting demands for COLA reform by calling on lawmakers to use the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E), a more accurate measurement of seniors’ expenses. TSCL reports that 93% of beneficiaries want Social Security and Medicare reform to be the top priority for lawmakers.
In addition to that, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish May 2025 CPI-W on June 11, which will provide more insight into 2026 COLA’s direction. Speculators will be closely watching if inflation stabilizes or deviates from current patterns.
Though the 2026 COLA is still speculation until an October official report, recipients can expect small gains under fluctuating inflation. Budgeting for necessary expenses and seeking supplemental income avenues such as part-time labor or back-end claims is advisable by advocacy organizations. All attention is for now focused on June’s CPI-W reading and the continuing policy discussions, which can remold the Social Security scene within months.
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